If Emmanuel Macron emerges as favorite for the next presidential election, Marine Le Pen would be narrowly ahead of his rival Eric Zemmour, according to the latest BVA poll in partnership with RTL and Orange. With around 16.5% of voting intentions, the president of the National Gathering would be so followed by the polemicist who would gather around 13.5% of the votes.
In more detail, Marine Le Pen is credited with 16 to 17% of the voting intentions in the event of a candidacy of the journalist-polemicist, still not declared in the race for the Elysee. Despite the many scandals caused by his words, Eric Zemmour could bring together between 13 and 14% of the votes. According to this study, the “near-candidate” would attract approximately a quarter of LR voters, a quarter of RN sympathizers and more than a third of supporters of the Debout La France party.
Towards a second round for the RN?
On the other hand, if the latter does not stand for the supreme election, scheduled for April 2022, the leader of the far-right party would “be able to qualify for the second round”, with 24 to 25% of the vote. Finally, it should be noted that Ms. Le Pen’s electoral base seems to be “the most solid” since 80% of her voters say they are “sure of their choice”.
On the right side, Xavier Bertand would collect 12 to 15% votes in front of Valérie Pécresse (10 to 12%). Finally, the poll reflects a “left crumbled not to say in crumbs”: the leader of France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and the ecologist Yannick Jadot would arrive tied with only 8 to 8.5% votes.
This survey was carried out on the basis of a sample of 1,503 people registered on the electoral lists “from a representative sample of 1,673 French people aged 18 and over”. The results of voting intentions “do not constitute an element of exact forecast” of electoral results.